The so-called “realist” prediction: another world war will happen. Soon.

Will there be another world war?


No one knows for sure.


So-called “realist” theorists would argue that the conditions are ripe for another world war. Constructivists and Mennonites would argue strenuously against the following “realist” prediction.


“Realists” start with the assumption that war is perpetual and that brief periods of peace are only temporary. Peace only happens when either one or two nations are clearly in control of all the others and are successful at pushing them all around.


"Realists" notice that since the end of World War II, we have had two periods of peace: the first when the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. were each dominating the countries on either side of the iron curtain, the second when the U.S. was dominating every country on earth. Because these two countries were in control of all the others, there was a relative and temporary peace in the U.S. and in some other countries that accepted a state of being dominated by either the U.S. or the U.S.S.R.


In the late 1980s, the power of the U.S.S.R. declined and the U.S. became the only major world superpower. Now the power of the U.S. is declining. The ability of the U.S. to force other countries to provide it with a temporary state of peace is waning.


To a “realist,” the decline of the power of the U.S. gives every other country an opportunity to wage war for power and control. Rising nations like China, India, and Russia will notice the declining power of the U.S. and go to war to try to become the next dominant power. This will trigger a third world war.


This pessimistic view of the future is in stark contrast to the peaceful future predicted by the constructivists and Mennonites. But we Mennonites should be aware of the predictions of the “realists.” There are “realists” high-up in the ranks of major world powers. Unfortunately, so-called “realists” are among the voices deciding whether or not countries like Russia will start another world war. 

It could happen tomorrow.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The constructivist and Mennonite prediction: an increasingly peaceful future

Will there be another world war? No one knows for sure. Constructivist theorists, including Mennonites, would argue that the chance of another world war gets smaller and smaller as time passes. We share the good news that we are less and less likely to be ensnared by another world war. A constructivist would say that with the passing of time, more and more people are realizing that war is a bad idea. War kills people and causes destruction. We have better ways to solve our problems than war that don't involve killing and destruction. We have diplomacy, cooperation, and building up the peaceful sectors of society, all tools that are preferable to war when nations deal with conflicts. Our progress on this peacebuilding makes the horrors of war's killing and destruction unnecessary. If we can solve our problems by choosing peace, why would we choose war? Mennonites are very progressive within constructivism. Mennonite Central Committee began with the purpose of gettin...
Read more

Constructivism, Part I

Ideas change over time. This is the basis of an international relations theory called constructivism , one of the three major theories of how countries relate to each other. Here's an example: The United States and the United Kingdom were at war in the 1770s. In the 1790s, both countries were suspicious of each others' military activities. A military buildup in the United Kingdom could be seen as a threat to the United States. There was still bad blood between the two countries. War might have seemed possible. Then, ideas changed. By the 2020s, the United States and the United Kingdom are not at all suspicious of each others' military activities. A military buildup in the United States poses no thread to the United Kingdom; the thought of the US and the UK at war with each other seems absurd. In the 1790s this was not the case. The idea of war between the two countries seemed possible in the 1790s. It seems impossible in the 2020s. The US and UK regularly...
Read more

You may not be interested in war...

Our class began with a quote. “You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.” This quote is attributed to Leon Trotsky, a Ukrainian theorist. Richard Betts' class at Columbia didn't include any readings of Trotsky beyond this one simple quote. This quote makes sense and does seem to ring true. Millions of Ukrainians are coming face-to-face with war and are fleeing to safety because they want nothing to do with it. Thousands of Ukrainian men who previously were accountants, bakers, mechanics etc. are setting aside their comfortable lives and responding to a war that's coming closer and closer. On the other side, thousands of conscripted Russian teenagers are being forced into combat instead of enjoying their teenage lives. The vast majority of people who encounter war do not welcome its encroachment into their lives. This is true for Mennonites as well. We don't want to go to war. Instead we feel a calling to spread God's peace. We w...
Read more