Why discuss theories of war and peace?

 

Unfortunately, theories are the best tools we have when discussing war and peace.


The study of war and peace is a social science, not a natural science. There are no laws. Just probabilities and patterns.


The natural sciences have laws. Think of scientific laws as recipes; if you pour a cup of baking soda into a cup of vinegar you will witness a violent reaction. Anyone can replicate this reaction with the same amount of baking soda and the same amount of vinegar. If you follow the recipe you will see the reaction. It's a law.


The social sciences do not have these recipe-like laws. Just probabilities and patterns.


There is no recipe for war or peace. There is no law that if you mix economic troubles, social division, an autocratic regime, and a mountainous terrain you will witness a violent reaction. The best we can do is observe conflicts and notice characteristics of the societies that experience them. When studying multiple conflicts we might notice that a certain percentage of them are in areas with economic troubles, social divisions, autocratic regimes, and mountainous terrains. Some of them. Not all of them. And not always. Just a percentage of the time.


So theories aren't perfect. But war and peace are social sciences, not natural sciences. So theories are the best we have.


The theories I mention in this blog will be those of highly-respected scholars and experts, not conspiracy theories.

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